Sales of the new cars in USA will fall third month in a raw, analysts expect. On the other side, sales ranking could be reaching its peak because of the selling days in October.
As forecasts showing, sales is falling 6 to 8 percent comparing with the same period from a year ago. That would be a better performance than it appears because October has two fewer selling days than it did in 2015. Additionally, negative figures causing weather conditions. According to the analysts, Hurricane Matthew also slowed sales in the Southeast earlier this month.
Sales in October lower 0,41 million then same month 2015, retail sales fall 7.9%
Forecasts are seasonally adjusted and observed from the annual level, sales course is going up from 17,7 million to 17,9 million. Compering the months, situation is not positive: 17,74 million of sales last month are way lower, comparing with the same month last year when the number was higher for 0,41 million, more precisely 18,15 million.
“Considering that there are no popular weekend sales events in October, automakers and dealers can feel encouraged by this month’s performance as they head into what they hope will be a busy holiday season,” said in a statement Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com.
Year to date sales could fall below the first ten months of the last year. This is the opinion of experts from four representative organization: LMC Automotive, True Car, Edmunds.com and Kelley Blue Book. It is even optimistic. That would be the first time 2016 has come up short of last year’s record setting pace. Some of that, however, could be make amended in November, because this month will have two more selling days than a year ago. Everything will be clearer after automakers announce reports for October sales on Tuesday, November 1.
LMC’s forecasts predicting fall of retail sales of 7.9%, which would mark the sixth decline in the past eight months. “The fact that this will be the sixth monthly decline in 2016 puts the industry in territory not seen since before the recession,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. “We do not foresee a large pullback in sales in the near term, but the fact that retail sales are beginning to contract, despite high incentives and extremely low interest rates and gas prices, is a clear indicator that this cycle has reached its peak” he added.
Due to a total sales decline, automakers have been cutting production to keep inventories on level.
Incentives also are on the rise as demand flattens out. “As retail demand plateaus, automakers will be forced to make the critical decision to cut vehicle production or increase incentives,” said TrueCar’s Eric Lyman. But he added: “There’s still gas left in the tank for automobile sales that should remain strong through the rest of 2016.”
The forecasts project declines of 10 to 11 percent for Ford, 6 to 9 percent for General Motors and 8 to 11 percent for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., American Honda, Nissan North America and Hyundai-Kia are expected to post volume declines but gain market share. Subaru, which has achieved 58 consecutive monthly gains, could see that streak end, with KBB forecasting a 1.2 percent decline. But TrueCar projects Subaru will eke out a 0.7 percent gain. Volkswagen Group of America is likely to report about a 17 percent drop as it continues to feel the effects of its diesel emissions scandal, according to TrueCar and Edmunds.